Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
