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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

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